Everyone Is Wrong About Brent Oil & Aramco Saudi Arabia Oil Company

Every time a major geopolitical event occurs, financial media follows the exact same script. Analysts rush to television studios, newspapers publish dramatic headlines, and social media becomes flooded with predictions about where oil prices are supposedly headed next. The latest tensions involving Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and global energy supplies are no different. Traders are once again being told that oil prices are rallying because of war, political instability, and fears of supply disruptions. The narrative sounds convincing. In fact, it sounds so convincing that most retail traders never stop to question it.

The problem is that markets do not move because a story sounds logical. Markets move because large institutions are buying or selling at specific price levels. This is why, after more than a decade trading financial markets and teaching supply and demand trading, I continue to focus on price action rather than headlines. Whether I am analyzing stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies, options, or commodities such as Brent Crude Oil, the same principle applies: supply and demand imbalances govern price. The news often arrives later and simply provides a convenient explanation for a move that was already underway.

The Russia-Ukraine War and the Brent Oil Prediction That Failed

One of the best examples of this occurred in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. At the time, financial media coverage was relentless. Virtually every analyst seemed convinced that oil prices would continue climbing indefinitely. Forecasts of $150 Brent Crude Oil became commonplace. Some commentators were discussing even higher targets, warning about global shortages and predicting a prolonged energy crisis.

If you listened only to the news, buying oil probably seemed like the easiest decision in the world. The headlines were bullish. The economists were bullish. The investment banks were bullish. The television experts were bullish. Everyone appeared to agree that higher prices were inevitable.

There was only one problem.

Brent Crude Oil had already reached a significant monthly supply imbalance near $127 per barrel. While the public was being encouraged to believe that oil could only move higher, institutional sellers were already becoming active. The chart was revealing something completely different from the narrative being promoted by the media. Supply was taking control precisely when most market participants were expecting further upside.

What happened next demonstrates why I place so little importance on fundamental analysis. Instead of rallying toward the widely advertised targets, Brent Crude Oil collapsed by more than fifty dollars per barrel. The same analysts who had confidently predicted higher prices suddenly began searching for explanations for the decline. As usual, the narrative changed after price had already moved.

Price did not collapse because analysts changed their opinions. Analysts changed their opinions because price collapsed.

That distinction is extremely important.

What Happened Before the 2026 Iran Conflict?

Fast forward to 2026, and we find ourselves in a remarkably similar situation. Once again, traders are being told that geopolitical tensions are responsible for movements in the oil market. Following military actions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, financial media quickly attributed the rise in Brent Crude Oil to fears surrounding regional instability and potential disruptions in energy supply.

However, when we examine the chart, I see a very different story.

Before the conflict became the dominant headline, Brent Crude Oil had already reached a major yearly demand imbalance. Price reacted strongly from that level, and buyers began taking control. The rally was already in progress. Institutional buying had already started. The market had already identified a location where demand was likely to exceed supply.

Only weeks later did the geopolitical narrative become the focus of public attention.

This is where many traders get trapped. They see the headlines and assume the headlines created the move. In reality, the move often begins before the story becomes popular. The conflict did not initiate the rally. It acted as a catalyst that accelerated a move that was already developing from a significant demand level.

This is one of the reasons I repeatedly tell my trading students that charts frequently reveal important information long before financial media discovers a suitable explanation.

Why Fundamental Analysis Often Arrives Too Late

Fundamental analysis is not necessarily useless. Economic data matters. Corporate earnings matter. Political developments matter. The problem is that most traders misunderstand how markets process information.

Markets are forward-looking mechanisms. Institutions do not wait for journalists to tell them what is happening. They position themselves based on expectations, risk assessments, liquidity considerations, and large-scale order flow. By the time a story reaches the front page of a financial website, professional money has often been acting on that information for weeks or even months.

This is why retail traders frequently feel as though they are chasing the market. They wait for confirmation from the news, only to discover that the move is already well advanced. They enter after the headlines become obvious, precisely when institutions may be preparing to do the opposite.

Learning to trade stocks, learn to trade forex, or learn to trade crypto successfully requires understanding this concept. Price action is not simply a reflection of current events. It is often a reflection of expectations about future events. Supply and demand imbalances provide clues about where institutional money is positioning itself before the majority of market participants recognize what is happening.

What Does This Mean for Aramco, the Saudi Arabian Oil Company?

Many investors assume that if oil prices rise, then Saudi Aramco must automatically be a strong investment. On the surface, that sounds reasonable. Aramco is the largest oil company in the world, and its business is directly connected to energy markets. If oil is important, then Aramco should benefit.

Unfortunately, markets are not nearly that simple.

As traders, we do not get paid for identifying companies that are important. We get paid for identifying where institutional buying and selling is occurring. There is a huge difference between those two concepts.

When I analyze Aramco’s stock chart $2222, I see a quarterly bearish impulse still in control. That observation immediately changes my perspective. Regardless of how influential the company may be, regardless of how important oil is to the global economy, and regardless of what financial commentators are saying, my rules do not currently allow me to buy the stock.

This is one of the biggest advantages of having a rule-based supply and demand methodology. It removes opinion from the decision-making process. I do not need to guess. I do not need to debate economic forecasts. I do not need to predict what politicians will say next week. I simply evaluate whether supply or demand is in control and allow the chart to guide my decisions.

The Real Lesson Brent Oil Continues to Teach Traders

The biggest lesson from both the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recent tensions involving Iran is not that geopolitical events are irrelevant. They clearly matter. The lesson is that traders often assign far too much importance to news and far too little importance to price action.

In 2022, Brent Crude Oil reached a major supply imbalance while analysts were predicting substantially higher prices. The result was a dramatic decline that surprised much of the market. In 2026, Brent Crude Oil reacted to a major yearly demand imbalance before geopolitical tensions became the dominant narrative. Once again, price action revealed information before the headlines became widespread.

The charts told the story first. The news simply arrived later and claimed responsibility.

That is why I continue to focus on supply and demand trading. Whether I am teaching traders how to learn to trade stocks, learn to trade forex, learn to trade crypto, or analyze commodities such as Brent Crude Oil, the underlying principle remains unchanged. Institutional buying and selling leave footprints on charts. Those footprints are often far more valuable than the latest headline, the latest analyst prediction, or the latest economic theory.

Price action may not be as entertaining as financial television, but it has one major advantage.

It is usually right.