Welcome back to another supply and demand webinar. Today, I want to address a plague that ruins more trading accounts than bad market conditions ever could: overtrading.
If you find yourself glued to your screens daily, frantically searching for entries, you are almost certainly choosing the wrong time frames. Unless you are an intraday scalper driven by the exhausting need to hunt setups every few hours to survive, trading every single day is completely unnecessary.
In trading, we have three choices: buy, sell, or do nothing. Most of the time, the smartest move is sitting on your hands and waiting for the market to come to you.
Are You a Hunter or a Fisherman?
To understand how I approach the markets, you need to decide which type of trader you want to be:
The Hunter: The intraday trader or scalper who constantly chases price across 5-minute charts. They must hunt daily just to eat, exposing themselves to endless noise, high stress, and constant temptation to overtrade.
The Fisherman: The supply and demand trader. We throw our line out into higher-timeframe levels, sit back, and wait for price to swallow the bait. Sometimes the fish bite, sometimes they don’t, and occasionally one breaks off. That’s trading. But we don’t sprint around the lake getting exhausted.
I recently received an email from a trader who exclusively trades spot gold on daily charts and complained about not getting setups for weeks. His conclusion was that supply and demand doesn’t work. The flaw in his logic is glaring: he is trying to apply the expectations of a single asset to a strategy designed for hundreds.
If spot gold isn’t offering a clean pull-back to a daily or weekly supply zone, why stare at gold? Look at silver, Brent crude, USD/CAD, Netflix, or Bitcoin. While gold sits in the middle of nowhere, dozens of other instruments are setting up perfectly.
Market Analysis & High-Timeframe Roadmaps
Let’s review where price action is actually heading across the major assets right now.
Spot Gold & Spot Silver
Gold: My higher-timeframe target for spot gold remains $2,000. People send me emails saying that’s “impossible,” just as they said it was impossible for gold to rally previously. Look at the higher timeframes: gold is being dumped. Buying off minor 4-hour demand zones in a broader downtrend is a novice trap.
Silver: Following gold’s footstep, silver recently printed new lows. We missed a clean daily supply zone by just a few ticks, but new supply has formed above. Lower prices remain the path of least resistance.
Crypto: Ripple (XRP)
XRP: Despite the constant hype in the crypto space, XRP remains in a textbook dump on higher timeframes. We have a weekly demand zone down near the 0.771 level. While we may see a temporary bounce when price hits that zone, it currently sits in no man’s land. If you want to hold XRP for a long-term investment, buying here makes zero sense—wait for deeper historical demand.
Forex: USD/CAD, AUD/USD, & GBP/JPY
USD/CAD: The long-term bias on the 3-month chart is bullish, but after an extended rally, buying at current levels is foolish. The recent daily demand zone was pierced and broken. An eliminated demand level is like a cracked glass of water—it’s no longer safe to use. Right now, USD/CAD is in no man’s land; I’m waiting for price to drop to the stronger weekly demand zone before looking for long positions.
AUD/USD: Weekly demand is currently holding, halting the recent daily sell-off. You do not sell into weekly demand. Until that zone is eliminated, shorts are off the table.
GBP/JPY: We have a strong weekly supply level waiting up near 211.5. Below, demand has held. If the 4-hour highs break, short-term traders might find long opportunities up toward that supply zone, but my focus is waiting for price to reach the higher-timeframe extremes.
Brent Crude Oil: Monthly supply remains firmly in control. Buying into current support means driving your car directly into a brick wall. You don’t accelerate into an obstacle hoping your car is strong enough to break it; you avoid it. Until we see clear signs of demand taking over, buying oil is out of the question.
Platinum Futures: Much like gold and silver, platinum is in a clear multi-timeframe downtrend marked by aggressive impulse moves down and weak corrections up. Longs are completely off the table.
Coinbase (COIN): COIN tested its daily demand level three or four times, showing weaker bounces each time until the zone was completely eliminated. When a demand zone is eliminated, stop trying to buy it. AMD is showing similar dumping behavior toward multi-month demand.
The Bottom Line
Stop making trading harder than it needs to be. You do not need to trade every single day.
If you lack the patience to wait for higher-timeframe imbalances, the market will gladly take your money. Map out your supply and demand zones, set your alerts, and forget about the charts until price reaches your levels. Protect your mental capital, preserve your risk, and stop overtrading.
Learn to Do This Yourself
Want to analyze the markets yourself? Learn my rules-based methodology, build your trading plan, and get practical feedback inside the Set & Forget Community.
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